Tuesday, November 29, 2011

11/27/11 Opps!

Seems the market had different plans after we prepared data on 71 different companies.
The egg on our face is thick and rich.
We were able to trade on parts of the list but needless to say this involved quite a bit of scrambling, but not chasing.

Markets are dynamic as they are constantly changing.
As we have said before opportunities exist... sometimes it takes more of an effort to discover them.
We traded in about a dozen names, ones that failed to fully react to the abrupt clime Monday.
This required scouring for opportunity and repricing away from the analysis we had done the prior weekend.

Static or rather closed markets are wonderful to price trades, it is only when the move that the challenge begins.

We will begin repricing the trades we did this weekend and presented on Monday morning. Honestly, we are looking forward to looking at the pricing changes and adjustments after the strong market move.

Monday, November 28, 2011

11/27/11 Symbol AA ABB ADI ADP AEP ALV APD APL AVP AWK AZN BA BAX BHP BMY BWP CAG CAT CCE CF CLX CMC COP CPO CTL CVX D DBD DCI DE EAT EPB EPD ETN ETP

Symbol
AA, ABB,ADI,ADP,AEP,ALV,APD,APL,AVP,AWK,AZN,BA,BAX,BHP,BMY,BWP,CAG,CAT,CCE,CF,CLX,CMC,COP,CPO,CTL,CVX,D,DBD,DCI,DE,EAT,EPB,EPD,ETN,ETP,FCX,GIS,GPC,HI,HNZ,HPQ,INTC,JNJ,KFT,KMP,LLY,LMT,LO,MCD,MLR,MO,MXIM,OLN,PAA,PEP,PG,PH,PM,POT,RAI,RRD,SCCO,SFL,SLE,SMG,SO,SON,STLD,SYY,TAP & UVV

This is quite the large list!

Overall there are 71 stocks in this analysis group.

The sectors are diverse although it shows our bias toward companies that earn tolling fees, mining and parts.

Of the 71 stocks, 10 have SSR's over 5.0% (HI, SFL, MLR, PH, CF, DBD, MXIM, CAT, FCX & AA) - SO is an error due to relational database issues.

Day's Earning has 12 stocks at 20 pbs/day or more (CF, CAT, FCX, AA, SFL, APD, STLD, SCCO, CMC, BHP, ETN & HPQ). With 28 stocks at 15 bps/day or more.


Volatility (^VIX) closed at 34.47 and the S&P closed at 1,128.67.

We know that the morning futures are pricing in a large rally following Asia and Europe's lead. As always, the trades listed will need to be repriced depending on how the spot stock and VIX follow each other.


Symbol Name

AA Alcoa Inc - #5 overall and #4 Days Earning. Mining stocks were hit hard. AA has RVI's ranging from 5-20%. This is cheap.

ABB ABB Ltd

ADI Analog Devices, Inc

ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

AEP American Electric Power

ALV Autoliv, Inc

APD Air Products & Chemicals Inc. - #6 overall and Days Earning. RVI's are 25-40%. Another stock in a sector we like.

APL Atlas Pipeline Partners LP

AVP Avon Products, Inc

AWK American Water Works Company, Inc.

AZN AstraZenica PLC

BA Boeing Company

BAX Baxter International Inc

BHP BHP Biliton Limited

BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

BWP Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP

CAG ConAgra Foods, Inc

CAT Caterpillar Inc. - #3 overall , #2 Days Earning & SSR. RVI's are 39-49%. Another favorite of ours.

CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc

CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc - #1 Overall and in Days Earning - a stock we have liked for a long time. RVI's are low 30's and 40's.

CLX The Clorox Company

CMC Commercial Metals Company

COP ConocoPhillips

CPO Corn Products International Inc.

CTL CenturyLink, Inc

CVX Chevron Corp.

D Dominion Resources, Inc

DBD Diebold, Inc

DCI Donaldson Company, Inc.

DE Deere & Company

EAT Brinker International, Inc.

EPB El Paso Pipeline Partners, LP

EPD Enterprise Products Partners LP

ETN Eaton Corporation

ETP Energy Transfer Partners L.P.

FCX Freeport McMoRan - #4 overall, #3 Days Earning. This sector has been hit hard as metals/mining were flying high. We see this as a buying opportunity and with RVI's 15-30% it looks cheap.

GIS General Mills, Inc

GPC Genuine Parts Company

HI Hillenbrand Inc Common Stock

HNZ H.J. Heinz Company

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company

INTC Intel Corporation

JNJ Johnson & Johnson

KFT Kraft Foods Inc.

KMP Kinder Morgan Pipeline

LLY Eli Lilly and Co

LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation

LO Lorillard Inc

MCD McDonald's Corp

MLR Miller Industries, Inc. Common

MO Altria Group Inc.

MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Inc.

OLN Olin Corp

PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.

PEP Pepsico, Inc

PG The Procter & Gamble Company

PH Parker-Hannifon Corp

PM Phillip Morris

POT Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc

RAI Reynolds American Inc

RRD RR Donnelley & Sons Co

SCCO Southern Copper Corp

SFL Ship Finance International - #2 Overall, #5 Days Earning - tough sector with shipping rates declining. SFL has commitments forward and seems to be suffering with the sector. RVI's are crazy low reflecting the suffering stock price. Dividend pays 12/09.

SLE Sara Lee Corp

SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

SO The Southern Company - SO data is erroneous due to relational database issues. Corrected information is 12/12 @ 43 = Net 41¢ SSR 0.97% Days Earning 0.51% / 1/20 @ 43 = Net 88¢ SSR 2.07% Days Earning 0.38%.

SON Sonoco Products Co.

STLD Steel Dynamics

SYY Sysco Corporation Common Stock

TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company

UVV Universal Corp Common


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